Luck breakdown
| Team | W | Exp. W | Luck | Rank | True rank | Luck swing | Lucky W | Unlucky L | Close games | vs Median | Opp +/− |
|---|
Luck by week
Wins above (green) or below (red) what each week's score earned. Highlighted cells are each team's best and worst week.
Season luck
Luck over time
What each metric means
- Luck: actual wins minus expected wins, where expected wins is your record if you played every team every week.
- True rank / Luck swing: your rank if standings were decided by expected wins. A +2 swing means luck moved you up two places.
- Lucky W / Unlucky L: wins where your score beat fewer than half the league, and losses where it beat more than half.
- Close games: your record in games decided by 10 points or fewer, which are close to coin flips.
- vs Median: your record if each week you only had to beat the league's median score. It removes the opponent entirely.
- Opp +/−: schedule luck. For every game it measures how far your opponent scored above or below their own season average. Positive means opponents had their best weeks against you.